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Will China will grow old before it gets rich?
Untertitel (324 Segmente)
In 2021, a dozen high-rise buildings in
Kunming worth over $150 million were
brought down in a matter of seconds.
They weren't structurally unsafe or
anything like that. Allegedly, they were
in the way of a 5% GDP target. That
moment says a lot about how China has
chased growth for decades. Build fast,
build big, and worry about purpose
later. But now that model is running out
of steam and Beijing wants to do things
differently. It is investing in
industries like AI, robotics, and smart
devices to improve how its people live
and work. From 2025 to 2035, the country
expects to grow at 5% annually. If that
holds, its GDP per capita will double
from 2020 levels. In effect, Beijing
will join the rich club by 2035. That's
been China's dream for more than a
century. But there is a slight problem.
GDP growth is not always productive
growth. You can build a highway, tear it
down, rebuild it exactly as before, tear
it down again, and do this over and
over, and it will all register as
economic growth. construction or
destruction, GDP doesn't care what the
activity is. It just counts the money.
This loophole isn't unique to China, but
local officials there have used it to
hit their GDP targets. That's why you'll
sometimes see perfectly good buildings
demolished. But at the end of the day,
none of this is productive growth. It's
not real. It doesn't benefit the public
in the long run. And so now that China's
economy is maturing, the time has come
to move up the ladder and rely on the
Chinese consumer for growth. In the next
decade, Beijing aims to rewire its
economy so that household consumption,
not statriven investment, becomes the
main driver of growth. However, going
from a production-based model to a
consumption-based model, is perhaps the
most complicated phase in becoming a
highincome country. It's easier to build
a machine than it is to convince people
to use it. We live in a world where
technology and AI are reshaping
geopolitics. As automation grows and
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