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The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED
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I have a big question.
Which is, who runs the world?
It used to be an easy question to answer.
If you're over 45 like me,
you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants.
The United States called the shots on one side of the Wall,
the Soviets set the rules on the other.
And that was a bipolar world.
It's very simple.
If you're under 45,
you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed,
and that left the United States as the sole superpower,
dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power.
And that was a unipolar world.
And then about 15 years ago,
things got a little more complicated.
The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman
or the architect of global trade
or even the cheerleader for global values.
Other countries were becoming more powerful,
and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like,
sometimes even setting new rules themselves.
What happened?
Three things.
Number one,
Russia was not integrated into Western institutions.
A former great power now in very serious decline
and they are angry about it.
We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are.
Number two,
China was integrated into US-led institutions
on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful,
they would become Americans.
Turns out, they're still Chinese.
(Laughter)
And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that.
Number three,
tens of millions of citizens in the United States
and other wealthy democracies
felt left behind by globalization.
This has been ignored for decades.
But as a consequence,
they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate.
Now if you look at all the headlines in the world today,
driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict,
over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons.
And that's why today we live in a leaderless world.
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