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3 Possible Futures for AI — Which Will We Choose? | Alvin W. Graylin | TED
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Manoush Zomorodi: Humans, still amazing.
Alvin W. Graylin: I don’t think we’re replaceable yet.
MZ: No, not yet.
But, Alvin, we're going to get some straight talk.
To me, for normal people, this was the year of AI.
And I don't think anyone really knows what to think right now.
So, Alvin, you have been in this field --
AI, cybersecurity, VR, semiconductors --
35 years you've been doing this.
But what makes you very different
is that it's been both in the United States,
as a US citizen,
and in China a lot of the time.
I think a lot of people feel ambivalent about AI.
They feel like, what is actually really happening,
what is hype
and what is transforming our existence?
Where are we right now according to you?
AWG: I mean, this is one of the biggest questions
that we have as a society today.
And unfortunately, there's just a lot of misinformation.
And my answer to you is probably going to be a little different
than the Silicon Valley consensus,
even though I work at Stanford,
and it's going to be probably a little scary to a lot of you.
But hopefully, by the end of this, it will convince you to take action.
Just like what TED, and the little note I saw in TED,
it says, what action are you going to take after this event?
We are really at this inflection point
and the inflection point, not the traditional one
that just keeps going up.
We are essentially at a fork in a road between three possible futures right now.
One where the big labs essentially take control
of the government by growing their power
and their resources as much as possible,
then creating essentially a class of trillionaires and everybody else.
This is kind of the Elysium future that's ahead of us.
The second option is that actually we are heading towards a Mad Max future,
where we intensify the conflict between countries,k
and going from AI race to AI war
to kinetic war and potentially to nuclear war.
And I've talked to people in DC who actually see that as "inevitable,"
which is a little scary.
And the third option that we have right now
is potentially the Star Trek option,
the option where technology is being used and shared,
and something brings us -- you know,
in the Star Trek stories, essentially,
the Vulcans bring us advanced technology.
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