B1 · 中级 章节 31

别只说 Maybe：掌握英语中的“推断艺术”与可能性

5 总规则
51 例句
6 分钟
本章规则 快速练习

Chapter in 30 Seconds

Master the art of expressing uncertainty and logical deductions with professional precision.

  • Differentiate between weak and strong possibilities using modal verbs.
  • Make logical deductions based on evidence using 'must' and 'can't'.
  • Use advanced probability adjectives and adverbs to sound more natural.
Stop guessing, start expressing levels of certainty.

你将学到什么

想说“大概”、“肯定”或“绝对不可能”，除了 Maybe 你还会别的吗？在 B1 阶段，我们需要让表达更有层次感。本章将带你深度掌握英语中的“推断艺术”。首先，你会通过 may 和 might 学会如何表达不确定的猜测；接着，我们会教你如何像侦探一样根据线索进行逻辑推断——用 must 表达“准是这样”，用 can't be 来否定那些“绝无可能”的事。为了让你的口语更地道，我们还会加入 may well 等高级概率词，以及 bound to、likely 等表达，帮你精准拿捏说话的分寸。这些技能在现实中非常实用！比如在职场会议中分析项目进展（“It's bound to succeed!”），或者在日常生活中根据蛛丝马迹推测朋友的心情。学完这一章，你将告别只会说 I think 的单调，能根据证据给出有理有据的判断，让你的英语听起来逻辑缜密且极具说服力。来吧，让我们一起开启这段逻辑之旅！

Learning Objectives

By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

  1. 1
    By the end you will be able to: describe a 30-50% chance of an event happening using may or might.
  2. 2
    By the end you will be able to: conclude that something is definitely true or false based on evidence.
  3. 3
    By the end you will be able to: rank different outcomes from 'unlikely' to 'bound to' using non-modal structures.

章节指南

Overview

As a B1 English learner, you're moving beyond basic communication and starting to express more nuanced ideas. This is where understanding English possibility and probability becomes incredibly useful! Imagine you're making plans, discussing news, or even just wondering about the weather – knowing how to express how likely something is can really boost your confidence and make your English sound much more natural.
This chapter will equip you with essential tools to talk about uncertainty and make logical deductions.
We'll explore how to use modal verbs like may and might to express things that are simply possible, and how must helps you sound confident about a logical conclusion. You'll also learn handy phrases like may well and might well to express a higher degree of probability. By mastering these concepts, you'll be able to discuss potential outcomes, explain why you think something is true, and even confidently state when something just can't be!
These are all key skills for navigating a wide range of everyday conversations at the B1 English grammar level.
Being able to differentiate between something that *might* happen and something that *must* be true based on evidence will help you communicate more precisely. It's about adding depth to your English, allowing you to share your thoughts and reasoning in a clear and convincing way. Get ready to discuss possibilities and probabilities like a pro!

How This Grammar Works

Let's break down the core grammar rules for expressing possibility and probability in English. We use modal verbs to do this, and they always precede a base verb (the infinitive without 'to').
When you're talking about something that is possible, but not certain, you'll use may or might. They are largely interchangeable for present or future possibility. For example,
It may rain later
means there's a chance of rain.
Similarly,
She might be at the library
suggests it's a possibility, but you're not sure. These express general uncertainty or a 'maybe' situation.
Now, if you're quite sure about something based on evidence or logic, you use must. This isn't about obligation; it's about making a logical deduction. If your friend has been studying all night, you could say,
She must be tired.
You're almost certain based on the clues.
This is called the epistemic must. The evidence makes it highly probable.
To add a bit more strength to your predictions, you can use may well or might well. These phrases indicate that something is quite likely because it makes good sense or there are strong reasons for it. For instance, "If he doesn't study, he may well fail the exam" implies that it's a very probable outcome given his actions.
It's stronger than just may or might alone, suggesting a reasonable expectation.
Finally, when you're absolutely certain that something is logically impossible, you use can't. For example, if you see someone enter a room and then immediately leave through the same door, you could say, "She can't be in the room anymore." The evidence tells you it's impossible. It's the opposite of must for logical deduction.
These structures build on each other, allowing you to express varying degrees of certainty.

Common Mistakes

  1. 1✗ Using 'must' for permission instead of logical deduction in this context.
✓ He must be home, his car is in the driveway. (Correct: Logical deduction)
✗ You must go to the party. (Incorrect for probability; this is obligation. For possibility, you might say
You might go to the party if you want.
)
*Explanation:* Remember that the 'must' we're focusing on here is for making a logical guess, not for giving orders or saying something is required.
  1. 1✗ Confusing 'may' and 'might' for past possibility.
✓ She may have forgotten her keys. (Correct for past possibility)
✗ She might forget her keys yesterday. (Incorrect: 'Might' for past possibility needs 'have' + past participle)
*Explanation:* For past possibility or probability, you need to use may have + past participle or might have + past participle. The chapter focuses on present/future, but this is a common extension.
  1. 1✗ Using 'cannot' instead of 'can't' for logical impossibility in informal contexts.
✓ That can't be true! (Correct: Common and natural)
✗ That cannot be true! (Less natural in everyday, conversational English for this specific meaning, though grammatically correct)
*Explanation:* While 'cannot' is grammatically fine, 'can't' is much more common and natural when expressing logical impossibility in conversational English.

Real Conversations

A

A

The lights are off in John's office. He usually works late.
B

B

He must have left already. It's almost 7 PM.
A

A

Do you think Sarah will come to the party?
B

B

She said she was busy, so she might not make it. But she may well surprise us if her meeting finishes early.
A

A

I can hear music from next door.
B

B

Oh, that can't be my neighbour. He's on holiday in Spain this week!

Quick FAQ

Q

Can I use 'may' and 'might' interchangeably for possibility?

Yes, in most cases for present and future possibility, may and might are interchangeable. Some people feel 'might' expresses a slightly weaker possibility, but the difference is very subtle and often not significant in everyday conversation.

Q

How is 'must' for possibility different from 'must' for obligation?

Must for possibility (epistemic) means

I am almost certain based on evidence
(e.g.,
He must be rich; he drives a fancy car.
). Must for obligation means
It is necessary or required
(e.g.,
You must finish your homework.
). The context makes the meaning clear.

Q

Is 'may well' much stronger than 'may'?

Yes, may well expresses a higher degree of probability than just may. It suggests that something is quite likely because there's a logical reason or expectation for it to happen. It's like saying "it's very likely or it's probable."

Q

When should I use 'can't' instead of 'won't be able to' for impossibility?

Use can't when you're making a logical deduction that something is impossible based on facts or evidence ("That can't be true, I saw it myself!"). Use 'won't be able to' for future inability or lack of opportunity ("I won't be able to come tomorrow, I have an appointment.").

Cultural Context

Native English speakers use these modal verbs constantly to soften statements, express uncertainty, and convey different levels of conviction. In casual conversation, you'll hear might and can't a lot, as they add a natural flow. Must for deduction is also very common.
While may well and might well are perfectly natural, they tend to be slightly more formal or used when explaining a reasoned prediction. There aren't significant regional differences in the core usage of these modals, but the frequency of their use may vary slightly between individuals.

关键例句 (4)

1

Look at all the snow! It `must be` freezing outside.

瞧这雪！外面肯定冷得要命。

使用'Must'进行逻辑推测（认知）
2

He's wearing a doctor's coat. He `must be` a doctor.

他穿着白大褂，肯定是个医生。

使用'Must'进行逻辑推测（认知）
3

She **may well pass** the exam; she studied all week.

她很有可能通过考试；她复习了整整一周。

概率助推器：May Well & Might Well
4

The package **might well arrive** tomorrow, as it shipped yesterday.

包裹很有可能明天送到，因为昨天已经发货了。

概率助推器：May Well & Might Well

技巧与窍门 (4)

💡

提建议时更委婉

你想给同事提建议，但不想显得太强势。试试用 Might 来软化语气：
You might want to consider this
听起来更像是在商量，而不是命令。
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 英语可能性：May 和 Might
💡

寻找证据！

在用 must 之前，先看看你手头的证据。证据越足，用 must 就越自信：
The ground is wet, so it must be raining.
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 使用'Must'进行逻辑推测（认知）
💡

预测值拉满

当你非常有理由相信某事会发生时，加上 well 能让你的推断显得很专业。
It may well be the best decision.
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 概率助推器：May Well & Might Well
💡

把它当成 must be 的死对头

如果你用 must be 表示肯定的推断，那么 "can't be« 就是它的逻辑反面。比如：»He can't be poor."
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 逻辑不可能性 (不可能是!)

核心词汇 (6)

Evidence facts or signs that show something is true Likelihood the chance that something will happen Certain completely sure about something Possible able to be done or happen Impossible not able to occur or exist Predict to say what will happen in the future

Real-World Preview

coffee

Solving an Office Mystery

Review Summary

  • Subject + may/might + base verb
  • Subject + must + base verb
  • Subject + can't + base verb

常见错误

In English, we do not use 'must not' for logical deductions. We use 'can't' to say something is logically impossible.

Wrong: It must be not true.
正确: It can't be true.

Modal verbs like 'might' never take an 's' in the third person singular.

Wrong: He mights come to the party.
正确: He might come to the party.

Adverbs of probability like 'probably' usually go after the first auxiliary verb or before the main verb.

Wrong: Probably I will see you later.
正确: I will probably see you later.

Next Steps

You've unlocked a new level of English! Being able to speculate and deduce makes your conversations much more interesting. Keep practicing those 'must be' moments!

Look out the window and make 5 'must be' and 5 'might be' observations about people you see.

Continue to: 告别“中式英语”：解锁地道词汇搭档

快速练习 (10)

Choose the correct sentence.

Which is correct?

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: I will probably go.
Probably before verb.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: Probability: Likely, Unlikely, Bound To, Definitely, Probably

哪个句子正确表达了对过去事件的逻辑推断？

Choose the correct sentence:

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: They must have missed the bus.
过去推断的正确结构是 must have + 过去分词。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 使用'Must'进行逻辑推测（认知）

找出并改正错误

Find and fix the mistake:

If you don't save, you might as well run out of money.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: If you don't save, you might well run out of money.
不存钱会导致钱花光的后果，这是一种概率推断，所以该用 might well 而不是 as well。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 概率助推器：May Well & Might Well

哪句话是正确的？

Choose the correct sentence:

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: He may well succeed.
记住这个语序：情态动词 + well + 动词原形。 well 的位置很关键哦！

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 概率助推器：May Well & Might Well

将句子翻译成英语，使用 must 表推断：'Ella debe de haber terminado el trabajo.'

Translate into English: '她肯定已经完成工作了。'

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: She must have finished the work., She must have completed the work.
推测过去发生的动作，使用 must have + 过去分词。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 使用'Must'进行逻辑推测（认知）

哪一个句子是正确的？

Choose the correct sentence:

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: He may not understand the instructions.
May not 后面必须接动词原形 understand。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 英语可能性：May 和 Might

Fix the error.

Find and fix the mistake:

He is bound that he wins.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: He is bound to win.
Bound to + infinitive.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: Probability: Likely, Unlikely, Bound To, Definitely, Probably

选择正确的形式完成逻辑推断。

The lights are off and the door is locked. She ___ asleep.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: must be
对于现在的逻辑推断，使用 must 后面接动词原形 be。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 使用'Must'进行逻辑推测（认知）

找出并修正句子中的错误。

Find and fix the mistake:

They might to forget about our meeting.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: They might forget about our meeting.
情态动词 might 后面直接接动词原形 forget，不需要加 to。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 英语可能性：May 和 Might

选出最合适的选项

She's always late, so she ___ miss the bus.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: may well
因为她总是迟到，所以错过公交车的概率很高，用 may well。 may as well 是建议语气。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 概率助推器：May Well & Might Well

Score: /10

常见问题 (6)

核心就是表达“可能”。当你对某事不是 100% 确定时，它们就派上用场了，比如
It may rain later
或者
She might be busy
。
在现代口语表达“可能性”时，大部分情况下是可以互换的。虽然有人觉得 might 的概率更低一点，但这种差别非常微妙，平时不用太纠结。
就是根据你掌握的证据做一个强力且自信的推断。相当于在说：既然 A 发生了，那么 B must be 也是真的。
非常高！大约 95-99% 的把握。当你觉得结论几乎无可辩驳时就用它，比如
The lights are off, so he must be asleep.
may well 表示某事非常有可能发生，比单纯的 may 语气更重。它通常暗示背后有逻辑支撑。
It may well rain today.
它们基本可以互换。 might well 有时听起来更委婉一点，或者用于假设，但核心意思都是“极有可能”。
She might well know the truth.
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