B1 · متوسط فصل 31

چقدر مطمئنی؟ هنر حدس زدن و بیان احتمالات

5 مجموع قواعد
51 مثال‌ها
6 دقیقه
قواعد این فصل تمرین سریع

Chapter in 30 Seconds

Master the art of expressing uncertainty and logical deductions with professional precision.

  • Differentiate between weak and strong possibilities using modal verbs.
  • Make logical deductions based on evidence using 'must' and 'can't'.
  • Use advanced probability adjectives and adverbs to sound more natural.
Stop guessing, start expressing levels of certainty.

چی یاد می‌گیری

تا حالا شده توی یه مکالمه انگلیسی بخوای بگی «احتمالاً»، ولی حس کنی کلمه‌ی درستی پیدا نمی‌کنی تا منظورت رو دقیق برسونی؟ تو این فصل قراره از اون سطح ساده و مقدماتی فراتر بریم و یاد بگیریم چطوری مثل یه نیتیو، درباره‌ی احتمالات و حدس‌هامون حرف بزنیم. اول از همه میریم سراغ may و might تا یاد بگیری چطوری وقتی صددرصد مطمئن نیستی، نظرت رو با ظرافت بیان کنی. بعدش یاد می‌گیری چطوری با استفاده از must، وقتی شواهد قوی داری، حدس‌های هوشمندانه بزنی؛ مثلاً وقتی می‌بینی رفیقت خیلی خوشحاله، با اطمینان بگی: «He must have heard the good news!». قراره یاد بگیری چطوری با ترکیب‌هایی مثل may well شدت احتمالات رو بالا ببری و با can’t be مچِ اتفاقات غیرممکن رو بگیری! همچنین با کلمات کلیدی دیگه‌ای مثل likely، unlikely و bound to آشنا میشی تا وقتی می‌خوای درباره‌ی پیش‌بینی آب‌وهوا یا نتیجه‌ی یه پروژه‌ی کاری حرف بزنی، دقیقاً همون درجه از اطمینانی رو که تو ذهنته منتقل کنی. آخر این فصل، تو دیگه فقط یه تماشاچی ساده نیستی؛ تو کسی هستی که می‌تونه با اعتمادبه‌نفس کامل درباره‌ی آینده پیش‌بینی کنه و خیلی طبیعی‌تر و حرفه‌ای‌تر تو بحث‌ها شرکت کنه. آماده‌ای که این مهارت جذاب رو به جعبه‌ابزار زبانت اضافه کنی؟

Learning Objectives

By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

  1. 1
    By the end you will be able to: describe a 30-50% chance of an event happening using may or might.
  2. 2
    By the end you will be able to: conclude that something is definitely true or false based on evidence.
  3. 3
    By the end you will be able to: rank different outcomes from 'unlikely' to 'bound to' using non-modal structures.

راهنمای فصل

مرور کلی

As a B1 English learner, you're moving beyond basic communication and starting to express more nuanced ideas. This is where understanding English possibility and probability becomes incredibly useful! Imagine you're making plans, discussing news, or even just wondering about the weather – knowing how to express how likely something is can really boost your confidence and make your English sound much more natural.
This chapter will equip you with essential tools to talk about uncertainty and make logical deductions.
We'll explore how to use modal verbs like may and might to express things that are simply possible, and how must helps you sound confident about a logical conclusion. You'll also learn handy phrases like may well and might well to express a higher degree of probability. By mastering these concepts, you'll be able to discuss potential outcomes, explain why you think something is true, and even confidently state when something just can't be!
These are all key skills for navigating a wide range of everyday conversations at the B1 English grammar level.
Being able to differentiate between something that *might* happen and something that *must* be true based on evidence will help you communicate more precisely. It's about adding depth to your English, allowing you to share your thoughts and reasoning in a clear and convincing way. Get ready to discuss possibilities and probabilities like a pro!

این گرامر چطور کار می‌کنه

Let's break down the core grammar rules for expressing possibility and probability in English. We use modal verbs to do this, and they always precede a base verb (the infinitive without 'to').
When you're talking about something that is possible, but not certain, you'll use may or might. They are largely interchangeable for present or future possibility. For example,
It may rain later
means there's a chance of rain.
Similarly,
She might be at the library
suggests it's a possibility, but you're not sure. These express general uncertainty or a 'maybe' situation.
Now, if you're quite sure about something based on evidence or logic, you use must. This isn't about obligation; it's about making a logical deduction. If your friend has been studying all night, you could say,
She must be tired.
You're almost certain based on the clues.
This is called the epistemic must. The evidence makes it highly probable.
To add a bit more strength to your predictions, you can use may well or might well. These phrases indicate that something is quite likely because it makes good sense or there are strong reasons for it. For instance, "If he doesn't study, he may well fail the exam" implies that it's a very probable outcome given his actions.
It's stronger than just may or might alone, suggesting a reasonable expectation.
Finally, when you're absolutely certain that something is logically impossible, you use can't. For example, if you see someone enter a room and then immediately leave through the same door, you could say, "She can't be in the room anymore." The evidence tells you it's impossible. It's the opposite of must for logical deduction.
These structures build on each other, allowing you to express varying degrees of certainty.

اشتباهات رایج

  1. 1✗ Using 'must' for permission instead of logical deduction in this context.
✓ He must be home, his car is in the driveway. (Correct: Logical deduction)
✗ You must go to the party. (Incorrect for probability; this is obligation. For possibility, you might say
You might go to the party if you want.
)
*Explanation:* Remember that the 'must' we're focusing on here is for making a logical guess, not for giving orders or saying something is required.
  1. 1✗ Confusing 'may' and 'might' for past possibility.
✓ She may have forgotten her keys. (Correct for past possibility)
✗ She might forget her keys yesterday. (Incorrect: 'Might' for past possibility needs 'have' + past participle)
*Explanation:* For past possibility or probability, you need to use may have + past participle or might have + past participle. The chapter focuses on present/future, but this is a common extension.
  1. 1✗ Using 'cannot' instead of 'can't' for logical impossibility in informal contexts.
✓ That can't be true! (Correct: Common and natural)
✗ That cannot be true! (Less natural in everyday, conversational English for this specific meaning, though grammatically correct)
*Explanation:* While 'cannot' is grammatically fine, 'can't' is much more common and natural when expressing logical impossibility in conversational English.

مکالمات واقعی

A

A

The lights are off in John's office. He usually works late.
B

B

He must have left already. It's almost 7 PM.
A

A

Do you think Sarah will come to the party?
B

B

She said she was busy, so she might not make it. But she may well surprise us if her meeting finishes early.
A

A

I can hear music from next door.
B

B

Oh, that can't be my neighbour. He's on holiday in Spain this week!

سؤالات رایج

Q

Can I use 'may' and 'might' interchangeably for possibility?

Yes, in most cases for present and future possibility, may and might are interchangeable. Some people feel 'might' expresses a slightly weaker possibility, but the difference is very subtle and often not significant in everyday conversation.

Q

How is 'must' for possibility different from 'must' for obligation?

Must for possibility (epistemic) means

I am almost certain based on evidence
(e.g.,
He must be rich; he drives a fancy car.
). Must for obligation means
It is necessary or required
(e.g.,
You must finish your homework.
). The context makes the meaning clear.

Q

Is 'may well' much stronger than 'may'?

Yes, may well expresses a higher degree of probability than just may. It suggests that something is quite likely because there's a logical reason or expectation for it to happen. It's like saying "it's very likely or it's probable."

Q

When should I use 'can't' instead of 'won't be able to' for impossibility?

Use can't when you're making a logical deduction that something is impossible based on facts or evidence ("That can't be true, I saw it myself!"). Use 'won't be able to' for future inability or lack of opportunity ("I won't be able to come tomorrow, I have an appointment.").

بافت فرهنگی

Native English speakers use these modal verbs constantly to soften statements, express uncertainty, and convey different levels of conviction. In casual conversation, you'll hear might and can't a lot, as they add a natural flow. Must for deduction is also very common.
While may well and might well are perfectly natural, they tend to be slightly more formal or used when explaining a reasoned prediction. There aren't significant regional differences in the core usage of these modals, but the frequency of their use may vary slightly between individuals.

مثال‌های کلیدی (8)

1

I might go to the gym later.

شاید بعداً برم باشگاه.

احتمال در انگلیسی: May و Might
2

It may rain this afternoon.

شاید امروز بعدازظهر بارون بیاد.

احتمال در انگلیسی: May و Might
3

You must be tired after that long flight.

تو باید بعد از اون پرواز طولانی خسته باشی.

حدس منطقی با 'Must' (شناختی)
4

He must be the new manager; he's wearing a suit.

اون باید مدیر جدید باشه؛ کت و شلوار پوشیده.

حدس منطقی با 'Must' (شناختی)
5

She **may well pass** the exam; she studied all week.

اون احتمالاً امتحان رو پاس می‌کنه؛ چون تمام هفته درس خونده.

تقویت کننده احتمال: May Well & Might Well
6

The package **might well arrive** tomorrow, as it shipped yesterday.

بسته ممکنه فردا برسه، چون دیروز ارسال شده.

تقویت کننده احتمال: May Well & Might Well
7

That pizza place `can't be closed` already, it's only 8 PM!

اون پیتزا فروشی که نمیشه الان بسته باشه، تازه ساعت ۸ شبه!

عدم امکان منطقی (این نمی‌تواند باشد!)
8

My internet `couldn't have gone out`. I just paid the bill yesterday.

اینترنت من که نمیشده قطع شده باشه. من دیروز تازه قبضشو پرداخت کردم.

عدم امکان منطقی (این نمی‌تواند باشد!)

نکات و ترفندها (4)

💡

فرقی ندارن!

توی بیشتر مکالمه‌ها، may و might رو میتونی به جای هم برای احتمال استفاده کنی. خیلی فکر نکن! مثلاً:
We may watch a movie
یا
We might watch a movie
هر دو درسته.
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: احتمال در انگلیسی: May و Might
🎯

راه میانبرِ 'be'

بیشتر وقتا وقتی از must استفاده می‌کنی، بعدش فعل be میاد (مثل must be happy, must be late). اول خوب این ترکیب «must be» رو یاد بگیر که خیلی پرکاربرده:
You must be hungry.
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: حدس منطقی با 'Must' (شناختی)
💡

پیش‌بینی‌هات رو قوی کن

تصور کن میخوای در مورد نتایج یه بازی پیش‌بینی کنی. این عبارت‌ها به حرفت وزن بیشتری میدن، انگار دلیل محکمی داری.
It may well rain tomorrow.
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: تقویت کننده احتمال: May Well & Might Well
💡

به "برعکس" قضیه فکر کن

اگه برای یه نتیجه‌گیری مثبت و قوی از 'must be' استفاده می‌کنی (مثلاً:
He must be rich
– حتماً پولداره)، پس 'can't be' دقیقاً برعکسشه. اینجوری بهتر یادت می‌مونه که اینا چقدر منطقی به هم وصلن: "He can't be poor."
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: عدم امکان منطقی (این نمی‌تواند باشد!)

واژگان کلیدی (6)

Evidence facts or signs that show something is true Likelihood the chance that something will happen Certain completely sure about something Possible able to be done or happen Impossible not able to occur or exist Predict to say what will happen in the future

Real-World Preview

coffee

Solving an Office Mystery

Review Summary

  • Subject + may/might + base verb
  • Subject + must + base verb
  • Subject + can't + base verb

اشتباهات رایج

In English, we do not use 'must not' for logical deductions. We use 'can't' to say something is logically impossible.

Wrong: It must be not true.
صحیح: It can't be true.

Modal verbs like 'might' never take an 's' in the third person singular.

Wrong: He mights come to the party.
صحیح: He might come to the party.

Adverbs of probability like 'probably' usually go after the first auxiliary verb or before the main verb.

Wrong: Probably I will see you later.
صحیح: I will probably see you later.

قواعد این فصل (5)

1

احتمال در انگلیسی: May و Might

B1
یه چیز رو بخوای بگی شاید اتفاق بیفته یا شاید نه، از may یا might استفاده کن و بعدش فعل اصلی رو بیار. یعنی maybe رو اینجوری میگی.
I `may go` to the gym after work, if I'm not too t...
12 مثال‌ها
2

حدس منطقی با 'Must' (شناختی)

B1
اینجوری فکر کن: با must و یه «فعل ساده» (بدون to)، نشون میدی که از چیزی «تقریباً مطمئنی» چون «سرنخ» داری.
Look at all the snow! It `must be` freezing outsid...
12 مثال‌ها
3

تقویت کننده احتمال: May Well & Might Well

B1
با «May well» و «might well» پیش‌بینی‌هات مطمئن‌تر و منطقی‌تر به نظر میان. اینا ابزارهای «افزایش احتمال» هستن.
She **may well pass** the exam; she studied all we...
12 مثال‌ها
4

عدم امکان منطقی (این نمی‌تواند باشد!)

B1
با "Can't be« (برای الان) و »couldn't have been« (برای گذشته) میتونی بگی یه چیزی »غیرممکنه«، اونم با »دلیل و مدرک" قوی.
That pizza place `can't be closed` already, it's o...
10 مثال‌ها
5

Probability: Likely, Unlikely, Bound To, Definitely, Probably

B1
Use likely, unlikely, bound to, definitely, and probably to express how certain you are about something. They differ in strength and grammar.
5 مثال‌ها

Next Steps

You've unlocked a new level of English! Being able to speculate and deduce makes your conversations much more interesting. Keep practicing those 'must be' moments!

Look out the window and make 5 'must be' and 5 'might be' observations about people you see.

Continue to: ترکیب‌های طلایی: مثل یه نیتیو انگلیسی حرف بزن

تمرین سریع (10)

شکل صحیح رو انتخاب کن:

She's always late, so she ___ miss the bus.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: may well
«May well» احتمال قوی رو نشون میده چون همیشه دیر می‌کنه. «May as well» برای پیشنهاده و «well may» ترتیب کلمه اشتباهه.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: تقویت کننده احتمال: May Well & Might Well

اشتباه رو پیدا کن و درستش کن.

Find and fix the mistake:

The phone is ringing. It musts be your mom.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: It must be your mom.
«Must» هیچوقت شکلش عوض نمیشه، حتی برای «it» یا «she».

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: حدس منطقی با 'Must' (شناختی)

Fill in the blank.

It is ___ to rain.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: likely
Likely takes 'to'.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: Probability: Likely, Unlikely, Bound To, Definitely, Probably

کدوم جمله درسته؟

جمله درست از نظر گرامری رو انتخاب کن:

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: She must be at home.
فعل کمکی «must» مستقیماً با فعل اصلی «be» میاد.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: حدس منطقی با 'Must' (شناختی)

کدوم جمله از نظر گرامری درسته؟

Choose the correct option:

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: She may come to the party.
بعد از فعلای کمکی مثل 'may'، فعل اصلی میاد (بدون 'to' و '-ing').

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: احتمال در انگلیسی: May و Might

شکل صحیح رو برای بیان غیرممکن بودن منطقی انتخاب کن.

He's only 16, so he ___ a licensed driver yet.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: can't be
چون اون فقط ۱۶ سالشه، از نظر منطقی غیرممکنه که هنوز گواهینامه رانندگی داشته باشه (توی بیشتر جاها). 'Can't be' این غیرممکن بودن رو نشون میده.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: عدم امکان منطقی (این نمی‌تواند باشد!)

اشتباه جمله رو پیدا کن و درستش کن.

Find and fix the mistake:

They mustn't be home. Their car isn't in the driveway.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: They can't be home. Their car isn't in the driveway.
'Mustn't be' اینجا اشتباهه. گوینده داره بر اساس شواهد (نبودن ماشین) یه نتیجه‌گیری منطقی میکنه، پس 'can't be' انتخاب مناسب برای بیان غیرممکن بودن منطقیه.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: عدم امکان منطقی (این نمی‌تواند باشد!)

جمله صحیح رو انتخاب کن:

Choose the correct sentence:

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: He may well succeed.
ترتیب صحیح کلمات برای این عبارت «may/might well + فعل اصلی» هست. «Well» تقویت‌کننده، مستقیماً بعد از فعل کمکی میاد.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: تقویت کننده احتمال: May Well & Might Well

Fix the error.

Find and fix the mistake:

He is bound that he wins.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: He is bound to win.
Bound to + infinitive.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: Probability: Likely, Unlikely, Bound To, Definitely, Probably

جای خالی رو با فعل کمکی مناسب (احتمال) پر کن.

It ___ be cold tonight, so wear a jacket.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: might
ما از شکل ساده 'might' بدون 's' یا 'to' استفاده می‌کنیم.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: احتمال در انگلیسی: May و Might

Score: /10

سوالات رایج (6)

به طور دقیق، may کمی محتمل‌تر از might هست، ولی توی انگلیسی مدرن تقریباً یک معنی دارن: maybe.
خیلی کم پیش میاد و خیلی قدیمی به نظر میاد. بهتره از «May I...?» یا «Can I...?» استفاده کنی. مثلاً:
May I come in?
آره، خیلی مطمئن‌تر! «Must be» یعنی تقریباً صددرصد مطمئنی، چون دلیل داری. «Might be» یعنی فقط یه احتمال (شاید ۵۰ درصد). مثلاً:
It must be true
(حدسم قوی‌تره) در مقابل
It might be true
(فقط یه احتماله).
آره! اگه یه نفر همیشه به بقیه کمک می‌کنه، میتونی بگی «She must be a very kind person.» این یه نتیجه‌گیری منطقی از کارهای اونه.
'May well' یعنی یه چیزی خیلی محتمله یا احتمال وقوعش بالاست، مطمئن‌تر از فقط 'may'. مثلاً اگه دوستت بگه:
I think he may well be sick.
یعنی فکر می‌کنه خیلی احتمال داره که مریض باشه چون مثلاً رنگش پریده بود.
این دو تا برای احتمال بالا تقریباً قابل تعویض هستن. 'Might well' شاید کمی محتاطانه‌تر باشه یا برای موقعیت‌های فرضی استفاده بشه، ولی معنی اصلی «احتمال زیاد» رو حفظ می‌کنه. مثلاً:
She might well arrive late, traffic is bad.
یعنی ممکنه دیر برسه چون ترافیک سنگینه.
فصل قبلی
رؤیاپردازی به انگلیسی: جادوی شرطی نوع دوم
فصل بعدی
ترکیب‌های طلایی: مثل یه نیتیو انگلیسی حرف بزن
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