B1 · 中級 チャプター 12

Looking Ahead: Future and Probability

3 トータルルール
33 例文
5 分
このチャプターのルール クイック練習

Chapter in 30 Seconds

Master the art of looking forward and making smart guesses in Spanish.

  • Distinguish between near plans and long-term predictions.
  • Identify irregular verb stems shared by future and conditional tenses.
  • Use the future tense to express probability in the present moment.
The future is yours to predict and plan.

学べること

Hey there! Ready for a new level in Spanish? In this chapter, we're not just talking about the past and present anymore – we're diving into the future! You'll learn how to talk about your plans, like "I'm going to work tomorrow or I want to travel this week." This way, you can coordinate your travel plans with friends or confidently answer when someone asks what you're doing this weekend. First, you'll master using ir a to express your definite plans, much like going to in English. Then, we'll move on to the Futuro Simple, which is not only for future predictions but also for making educated guesses about the present. For example, you can say "I'm sure they'll come tomorrow or I think they must be home now." Here, you'll discover how one verb stem can serve both the future and conditional tenses – killing two birds with one stone! Now, imagine you have a Spanish-speaking friend who calls you, but you don't answer. Later, you want to tell them,

I must have been at work.
Or perhaps there's a knock at the door, and you want to say,
It must be the mailman.
This is where the Futuro de Probabilidad comes in handy. You'll sound much more natural and native, significantly boosting your Spanish. By the end of this chapter, you'll be able to speak confidently about the future and make smart guesses about present situations. So let's go, there are tons of exciting things to learn!

Learning Objectives

By the end of this chapter, you will be able to:

  1. 1
    By the end you will be able to choose correctly between 'ir a' and 'futuro simple' for plans.
  2. 2
    By the end you will be able to conjugate the 10 most common irregular future stems correctly.
  3. 3
    By the end you will be able to speculate about current situations using the future of probability.

チャプターガイド

Overview

Welcome to your next big step in mastering Spanish grammar! As a B1 Spanish learner, you're ready to move beyond just describing the present and past. This chapter,
Looking Ahead: Future and Probability,
is all about equipping you with the tools to talk about tomorrow, next week, or even next year.
You'll learn how to express your plans, make predictions, and even guess about what's happening right now, making your conversations much more dynamic and natural.
We'll start by solidifying your understanding of ir a + infinitive, the most common way to express definite plans, much like going to in English. Then, we'll dive into the Futuro Simple, a powerful tense used not only for future predictions but also for making educated guesses about present situations – a concept often called Futuro de Probabilidad. Imagine being able to confidently say, "I'm sure they'll arrive soon or They must be at home right now." This ability to express probability will significantly boost your fluency and help you sound more like a native speaker.
Get ready to expand your communicative range and impress your Spanish-speaking friends!

How This Grammar Works

Let's break down how to talk about the future and express probability in Spanish. First up is ir a + infinitive, which is your go-to for definite plans and intentions. It's formed by conjugating the verb ir (to go) in the present tense, followed by the preposition a, and then the infinitive of the action verb.
For example, Voy a estudiar (I am going to study) or Van a viajar mañana (They are going to travel tomorrow). This construction is incredibly common and mirrors the English going to structure perfectly for expressing your immediate or certain future plans.
Next, we have the Futuro Simple, also known as the Simple Future Tense. This tense is used for predictions, general future events, and promises. To form it, you take the infinitive of most verbs and add specific endings: -é, -ás, -á, -emos, -éis, -án.
For example, hablaré (I will speak), comerás (you will eat), vivirá (he/she/it will live). There are also irregular verbs in the future, but here's a neat trick: their irregular *stem* is often the same one used for the Conditional tense! For instance, tener becomes tendr- (so, tendré, tendrás, etc.), hacer becomes har- (haré, harás, etc.), and decir becomes dir- (diré, dirás, etc.).
Now for the exciting part: Futuro de Probabilidad. This is where the Futuro Simple truly shines beyond just future events. You can use it to make guesses or express probability about *present* situations.
For example, if you say Estará en casa (He/She must be at home), you're not talking about the future, but rather speculating about their current location. Similarly, Serán las tres (It must be three o'clock) or Tendrá hambre (He/She must be hungry) use the future tense to express a conjecture about the present. Mastering this usage will make your B1 Spanish sound much more authentic and nuanced.

Common Mistakes

  1. 1✗ Wrong:
    Voy a viajaré mañana.
✓ Correct:
Voy a viajar mañana.
*Explanation:* When using ir a + infinitive, the main verb (the action you're going to do) should always be in its infinitive form, not conjugated. Only ir is conjugated.
  1. 1✗ Wrong:
    ¿Dónde está Juan? Yo creo que está en el trabajo.
    (When guessing)
✓ Correct:
¿Dónde está Juan? Estará en el trabajo.
*Explanation:* While creo que está is grammatically correct, using the Futuro Simple (Estará) to express probability or conjecture about the present is much more natural and common in Spanish. It conveys
He must be at work
or "He's probably at work."

Real Conversations

A

A

¿Qué vas a hacer este fin de semana? (What are you going to do this weekend?)
B

B

Voy a visitar a mis abuelos. ¿Y tú? (I'm going to visit my grandparents. And you?)
A

A

Yo iré a la playa si hace buen tiempo. (I will go to the beach if the weather is good.)
A

A

¿Por qué no contesta Ana? (Why isn't Ana answering?)
B

B

Estará en una reunión. Siempre tiene muchas por la tarde. (She must be in a meeting. She always has many in the afternoon.)
A

A

¿A qué hora llegará el tren? (What time will the train arrive?)
B

B

No lo sé, pero tendrá un retraso, como siempre. (I don't know, but it will probably be delayed, as always.)

Quick FAQ

Q

What's the main difference between ir a + infinitive and the Futuro Simple in Spanish?

Ir a + infinitive is for definite, pre-planned actions, similar to going to in English. The Futuro Simple is for predictions, general future events, or expressing probability about the present.

Q

How do I know when to use the Futuro Simple for probability instead of just saying I think that...?

Using the Futuro Simple for probability (Futuro de Probabilidad) adds a native-like nuance of conjecture or assumption (must be, probably is). While creo que (I think that) is correct, the future tense often sounds more natural for expressing educated guesses about the present.

Q

Are there many irregular verbs in the Futuro Simple in B1 Spanish?

There are about 12 common irregular verbs in the Futuro Simple, but the good news is they all follow a similar pattern: they have an irregular *stem* to which you add the regular future endings. Plus, these irregular stems are often the same ones used for the Conditional tense!

Cultural Context

In Spanish-speaking cultures, using the Futuro de Probabilidad is very common and natural in everyday conversations. It's a subtle yet powerful way to express uncertainty or make assumptions without sounding overly direct. You'll hear it frequently when people are speculating about someone's whereabouts, the time, or a potential reason for something.
Mastering this usage will make your Spanish grammar sound much more authentic and integrated into native speech patterns.

重要な例文 (6)

1

Te voy a llamar en cinco minutos, ¿vale?

5分後に電話するね、いい？

スペイン語の未来形：予定 vs 予測 (Futuro Simple vs. Ir a)
2

Mañana lloverá en todo el norte del país.

明日、国の北部全体で雨が降るでしょう。

スペイン語の未来形：予定 vs 予測 (Futuro Simple vs. Ir a)
3

Mañana tendré los resultados de el examen.

明日は試験の結果が出るだろう。

未来形と可能形の不規則動詞：1つの語幹で2つの時制
4

¿Me podrías pasar la sal, por favor?

塩を取っていただけませんか？

未来形と可能形の不規則動詞：1つの語幹で2つの時制
5

¿Dónde `estará` mi móvil?

I wonder where my phone is.

現在を推測する：確率を表す未来形 (Estará en casa)
6

`Serán` las tres de la tarde.

It must be around three in the afternoon.

現在を推測する：確率を表す未来形 (Estará en casa)

ヒントとコツ (3)

🎯

プロヒント：9割ルール

日常会話では、「ir a + infinitivo」の方が圧倒的によく使われます。もしどちらを使うか迷ったら、まずはこちらを選んでみてくださいね。「Voy a estudiar mañana.」（明日勉強するつもりです。）
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: スペイン語の未来形：予定 vs 予測 (Futuro Simple vs. Ir a)
🎯

「Suponer」の裏技

「suponer」や「mantener」のように、不規則動詞を含む動詞は、同じ不規則なパターンに従います。例えば、「suponer」は「supondré」になります。「Supondré que tienes razón.」
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 未来形と可能形の不規則動詞：1つの語幹で2つの時制
💡

Context is King

If you are talking about the present, use the future tense. Don't overthink it.
frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 現在を推測する：確率を表す未来形 (Estará en casa)

重要な語彙 (7)

mañana tomorrow próximo next supongo I suppose / I guess probablemente probably hacer to do / to make tener to have ahora now

Real-World Preview

phone

Wondering where a friend is

Review Summary

  • Infinitive + -é, -ás, -á, -emos, -éis, -án
  • Irregular Stem + Future Endings

よくある間違い

While the present is sometimes used for the future, at B1 level you should use future forms to be precise about timing.

Wrong: Mañana yo como con mi abuela.
正解: Mañana comeré / voy a comer con mi abuela.

Don't forget to use the irregular stem 'tendr-' instead of the full infinitive 'tener'.

Wrong: Yo teneré mucho dinero.
正解: Yo tendré mucho dinero.

To sound like a native, use the future tense when you are guessing the current time or state.

Wrong: ¿Qué hora es? - Es las tres (when unsure).
正解: ¿Qué hora será? - Serán las tres.

Next Steps

You've just expanded your Spanish timeline! Being able to discuss the future and express probability makes your conversations so much more dynamic. Keep practicing those irregular stems!

Write down 5 predictions for the world in 50 years.

Look at a photo of people and guess what they are doing using probability.

Continue to: Hypotheticals and Giving Advice

クイック練習 (9)

文法的に正しい文を選んでください。

Choose the correct way to say 'I would do it'.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: Yo lo haría.
「Haría」は不規則な語幹「har-」と条件法語尾「-ía」を使っています。「Haré」は未来形です。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 未来形と可能形の不規則動詞：1つの語幹で2つの時制

Choose the correct sentence.

Which is correct?

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: Estará en casa.
The future tense is the correct form for probability.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 現在を推測する：確率を表す未来形 (Estará en casa)

天気予報に最も適切な単語を選んでください。

Según el pronóstico, mañana ________ en Madrid.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: lloverá
天気予報や一般的な予測では、「futuro simple」が標準的な選択です。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: スペイン語の未来形：予定 vs 予測 (Futuro Simple vs. Ir a)

Conjugate the verb in the future tense.

¿Dónde ___ (estar) María?

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: estará
Future tense for probability.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 現在を推測する：確率を表す未来形 (Estará en casa)

文中の間違いを見つけて修正してください。

Find and fix the mistake:

Él decirá la verdad en el juicio.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: Él dirá la verdad en el juicio.
「decir」の未来形語幹は「dir-」なので、「decirá」ではなく「dirá」であるべきです。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 未来形と可能形の不規則動詞：1つの語幹で2つの時制

Find the error.

Find and fix the mistake:

Probablemente él está en casa.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: está
Should be 'estará'.

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 現在を推測する：確率を表す未来形 (Estará en casa)

計画に最も自然な未来形を埋めてください。

Este fin de semana ________ una película en Netflix.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: voy a ver
個人的な計画や意図には「ir a + 不定詞」を使います。「Veré」は予測やフォーマルな約束のように聞こえます。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: スペイン語の未来形：予定 vs 予測 (Futuro Simple vs. Ir a)

時間についてのこの推測の間違いを見つけて修正してください。

Find and fix the mistake:

¿Qué hora es? - No sé, van a ser las cinco. (Guessing)

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: serán
現在の状況を推測する時（確率）には、「futuro simple」を使います。「Van a ser」は時間が変わる計画を意味することになり、意味が通りません。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: スペイン語の未来形：予定 vs 予測 (Futuro Simple vs. Ir a)

「tener」の正しい未来形を空欄に記入してください。

Yo ___ (tener) los boletos para el concierto mañana.

✓ Correct! ✗ Not quite. Correct answer: tendré
「tener」の不規則な語幹は「tendr-」です。「yo」の未来形語尾「-é」を加えると「tendré」になります。

frontend.learn_grammar.from_rule: 未来形と可能形の不規則動詞：1つの語幹で2つの時制

Score: /9

よくある質問 (6)

主な違いは「意図」か「予測」かです。「Voy a estudiar」（勉強するつもりです）は計画、「Estudiaré」（いつか勉強するだろう）は予測や漠然とした未来を表します。
はい、できます！「futuro simple」を使ってください。「¿Quién será?」（あれは誰だろう？）や「Serán las tres」（たぶん3時だろう）のように、現在の推測に使います。
歴史的に、未来形と条件法は動詞「haber」の形を不定詞に加えることで形成されていました。ベースが同じだったため、語幹も時間とともに同じように進化していったんですよ。
主な不規則動詞は12個あります。ただし、「detener」や「predecir」のように、これらの動詞を基にした動詞も不規則になりますよ。
Yes, but in context, it's clear. If you say 'Estará en casa mañana', it's future. If you say 'Estará en casa' without a time marker, it's probability.
Because it was historically used for the future, but evolved to include probability.
前のチャプター
Connecting Ideas and Comparing Things
次のチャプター
Hypotheticals and Giving Advice
ロードマップに戻る