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予測する

B2 verb #4,000 最常用 9分钟阅读

予測する

yosoku suru 前4,000

开始练习例句笔记与提示 予測する 30秒了解

解析 予測する in your Level:

At the A1 level, you are just beginning to learn how to talk about the future. While 'yosoku suru' is a bit advanced for a complete beginner, you might encounter it in simple weather reports. Think of it as a formal way to say 'I think... will happen' based on a reason. At this level, you should focus on the 'yo' part, which appears in 'yotei' (plan). You don't need to use 'yosoku suru' in your own speech yet, but if you see it, just remember it means someone is talking about what might happen next. Usually, A1 students use '...to omoimasu' (I think) instead. For example, instead of 'yosoku suru', you might say 'Ashita wa ame da to omoimasu' (I think it will rain tomorrow). 'Yosoku suru' is like the big brother of 'omoimasu'—it's more serious and usually used by teachers or people on TV. If you see the kanji 予測, just think 'future measure'. Learning this word early helps you recognize it when you listen to the news or read simple signs about traffic or weather. It's a 'passive vocabulary' word for you right now, meaning you should recognize it when you hear it, even if you don't use it yourself yet. As you learn more, you'll see how 'yo' (in advance) is a very useful building block for many Japanese words. It's the same 'yo' in 'yoshuu' (preparing for a lesson). So, 'yosoku' is just 'preparing a measurement' for what's coming next!

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At the A2 level, you are starting to use more specific verbs. You might begin to use 'yosoku suru' when talking about things like the weather or simple results in a game. You know that Japanese verbs can be 'Noun + suru', and 'yosoku' is one of those. You can use it to sound a little more certain or professional than just saying 'omoimasu'. For instance, if you are looking at a dark cloud, you could say 'Ame o yosoku shimasu' (I predict rain). It sounds a bit like a joke at this level because it's so formal, but it's good practice! You will also see this word in reading materials about the environment or technology. A2 learners should notice the difference between 'yosoku' (prediction) and 'yotei' (plan). A 'yotei' is something you decided to do, like 'I plan to go to Tokyo'. A 'yosoku' is something you think will happen based on what you see, like 'I predict Tokyo will be crowded'. Understanding this difference is a big step in A2. You should also practice the '...to yosoku shimasu' pattern. This allows you to say a whole sentence and then add 'I predict that...'. It's a great way to start making longer, more complex sentences. Even if you make mistakes with the nuance, using 'yosoku suru' shows that you are trying to use 'kango' (Chinese-origin words), which makes your Japanese sound more adult and educated.

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At the B1 level, 'yosoku suru' becomes a very useful tool for your daily and professional Japanese. You are now expected to discuss topics like the economy, your job, and social issues. In these discussions, 'yosoku suru' is the perfect word to use when you are presenting an opinion backed by some facts. For example, if you are talking about your company's sales, you would say 'Raiseki wa uriage ga agaru to yosoku shimasu' (I predict sales will go up next month). This sounds much better in a meeting than using 'yosou' (guess). At B1, you should also be comfortable with the passive form 'yosoku sareru'. You will hear this constantly on the news: 'Taifuu ga kuru to yosoku sarete imasu' (It is predicted that a typhoon will come). This 'It is predicted' structure is very common in Japanese culture because it avoids blaming a specific person for the prediction if it turns out to be wrong. It sounds objective and safe. You should also start learning collocations like 'yosoku ga hazureru' (the prediction was wrong/missed) and 'yosoku o tateru' (to make a prediction). These phrases will help you speak more naturally. B1 is the level where you move from 'guessing' to 'forecasting'. You are starting to analyze the world around you in Japanese, and 'yosoku suru' is the primary verb for that analysis.

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At the B2 level, which is where 'yosokuする' officially sits, you must master the nuance between this word and its synonyms. You should clearly understand why you would choose 'yosoku' over 'yosou', 'yoki', or 'suisoku'. You are likely using Japanese in professional or academic settings where precision matters. You should be able to use 'yosoku suru' to describe complex trends, such as 'shoushika no eikyou o yosoku suru' (predicting the effects of the declining birthrate). Your grammar should be sharp, correctly using nominalized forms like 'yosoku suru koto wa muzukashii' (predicting is difficult). You should also be familiar with compound words that include 'yosoku', such as 'yosoku-funou' (unpredictable) or 'juyo-yosoku' (demand forecasting). At this level, you should also be able to understand and use the word in the context of data science and AI, which are common topics in B2-level reading and listening tests like the JLPT N2. You should be able to explain 'why' a prediction was made using the '...ni motozuite' (based on...) pattern. For example, 'Kako no teikei ni motozuite, kongo no doukou o yosoku shimasu' (Based on past patterns, I will predict future trends). This level of sophistication shows that you can not only communicate facts but also engage in high-level logical reasoning in Japanese.

At the C1 level, you are expected to use 'yosoku suru' with complete naturalness in highly complex and abstract discussions. You should be able to debate the validity of different predictions and the methodologies used to reach them. You might use the word in a sentence like 'Kono moderu wa hensuu ga oosugite, seikaku na yosoku o samatagete iru' (This model has too many variables, hindering accurate prediction). You should also be sensitive to the rhetorical use of 'yosoku'. For instance, using 'yosoku no han-i-nai' (within the range of prediction) to downplay a surprising event, or 'yosoku o uragiru' (to betray/defy prediction) to describe a shocking outcome. At C1, you should also be comfortable with the classical or more formal variants of the word that might appear in literature or high-level editorials. You are not just using the word; you are evaluating the certainty and the source of the prediction. You might distinguish between 'teiryoutaki yosoku' (quantitative prediction) and 'teiseiteki yosoku' (qualitative prediction). Your ability to use 'yosoku' in the passive, causative, and potential forms should be flawless. Furthermore, you should understand how 'yosoku' fits into the broader Japanese business culture of 'nemawashi' and risk management, where being able to accurately 'yosoku' risks is a highly valued skill. You are now using the word to navigate the subtleties of Japanese organizational logic.

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At the C2 level, 'yosoku suru' is a word you use with the precision of a native speaker in any context, from a scientific symposium to a high-level political briefing. You understand the deep etymological roots of the kanji and how they interact with other similar concepts in the Japanese philosophical and legal systems. You can use 'yosoku' to discuss the 'predictability' of laws (hou no yosoku kanousei), a concept vital in legal theory. You are capable of using the word in highly nuanced ways, such as 'yosoku-teki na taiou' (preemptive/predictive response) in the context of crisis management. At this level, you can also appreciate the word's limitations—understanding when a situation is so chaotic that 'yosoku' itself becomes a futile exercise, and being able to express that using sophisticated vocabulary like 'kaosu riron' (chaos theory) or 'fukakutaisai' (uncertainty). You can write long essays or reports where 'yosoku' is a central theme, maintaining a consistent and appropriate register throughout. You also understand the cultural implications of 'yosoku' in Japan, such as the social pressure to provide accurate forecasts and the 'sekinin' (responsibility) that comes with making a public 'yosoku'. Your mastery is such that you can even use the word ironically or metaphorically in creative writing, showing a deep, intuitive grasp of the Japanese language's expressive potential.

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开始练习例句笔记与提示

予測する 30秒了解

予測する (yosoku suru) means to predict or forecast based on logical data.
It is a formal word used in news, science, and business contexts.
It differs from 予想 (yosou) which can be based on intuition or guessing.
Commonly used for weather, economy, and AI technology predictions.

The Japanese verb 予測する (yosoku suru) is a cornerstone of analytical communication, primarily meaning "to predict" or "to forecast." It is a compound verb consisting of the kanji 予 (previously/in advance) and 測 (measure/gauge). Unlike more casual words for guessing, 予測する implies a process based on objective data, logical reasoning, or observable trends. It is the gold standard in professional, academic, and scientific contexts when one is attempting to determine a future outcome based on present evidence. For example, a meteorologist doesn't just 'guess' the rain; they use satellite data to yosoku the weather. Similarly, an economist uses market indicators to yosoku the inflation rate. The nuance of 'measurement' (測) is vital here; you are essentially 'measuring the future' using the tools available today.

Objective Basis: The word is used when there is a logical foundation for the claim. If you are just using your gut feeling, you might use 予想 (yosou) instead.

専門家は、来年の経済成長を2パーセントと予測する。(Experts predict next year's economic growth to be 2 percent.)

In daily life, you will encounter this word in news reports, weather forecasts, and business meetings. It carries an air of authority and precision. When a company yosoku its sales, it isn't just wishing; it's looking at the spreadsheets. This distinction makes it a CEFR B2 level word because it requires understanding the formality and the logical weight behind the action. In the realm of technology, specifically Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning, 予測 is the standard term for 'prediction' (e.g., 予測モデル - prediction model). Using this word correctly signals that you are moving beyond basic Japanese and entering the realm of professional and intellectual discourse.

Weather Forecasting: 天気予報 (tenki yohou) uses the 'yo' from yosoku, but the action of calculating the path of a typhoon is specifically called 台風の進路を予測する.

最新のシステムを使って、地震の発生を予測する。(Predict the occurrence of earthquakes using the latest systems.)

Furthermore, 予測する is often paired with particles like と (to) when quoting the content of the prediction, or を (o) when indicating the object being predicted. It is a transitive verb. In complex sentences, you might see it used in the passive form 予測される (yosoku sareru - it is predicted that...), which is extremely common in journalism to maintain an objective tone. Understanding the gravity of this word helps learners navigate formal Japanese society where data-backed claims are highly valued over mere speculation.

Using 予測する effectively requires a grasp of its grammatical flexibility. As a suru-verb, it can be conjugated into various forms to suit the context. The most common pattern is [Noun] + を + 予測する, where the noun represents the event or data point being forecasted. For instance, kekka o yosoku suru (predict the result). When you want to state exactly what you think will happen, you use the pattern [Sentence in Plain Form] + と + 予測する. This structure allows you to embed complex thoughts into the prediction.

The Passive Voice: In formal writing, the passive form 予測される (yosoku sareru) is used to sound more objective. 'It is predicted that...' becomes '...と予測される'.

来週の株価は下落すると予測されています。(It is predicted that next week's stock prices will fall.)

Another important aspect is the degree of certainty. While 予測する implies a logical basis, you can modify it with adverbs to show how confident the prediction is. Using 正確に (seikaku ni - accurately) or 的確に (teikaku ni - precisely) emphasizes the quality of the data analysis. Conversely, 困難だ (konnan da - is difficult) is often used to describe how hard it is to predict something like the stock market or human behavior. You might say mirai o seikaku ni yosoku suru no wa muzukashii (It is difficult to accurately predict the future).

Compound Nouns: 予測 (yosoku) often combines with other nouns: 予測不可能 (unpredictable), 予測値 (predicted value), 予測期間 (forecast period).

この事態は全く予測できなかった。(This situation was completely unpredictable/could not have been predicted.)

In technical documentation or business reports, you will see the word used to describe the methodology. For instance, Kako no deeta ni motozuite yosoku suru (Predict based on past data). This highlights the causal link between the data and the prediction. In speaking, particularly in a Polite (Teineigo) context, you would use yosoku shimasu or the humble yosoku itashimasu if you are presenting a forecast to a client. The versatility of 予測する allows it to bridge the gap between hard science and daily planning, provided there is a 'reason' behind the thought.

The word 予測する is pervasive in Japanese media and professional environments. If you turn on the NHK evening news, you are almost guaranteed to hear it within the first ten minutes, especially during segments on the economy, technology, or natural disasters. For example, during the 'Rainy Season' (Tsuyu) or 'Typhoon Season', meteorologists use it constantly to describe the paths of storms. They might say, "Taifuu no shinro o yosoku suru no wa muzukashii desu ga..." (Predicting the path of the typhoon is difficult, but...). Here, the word lends a scientific credibility to their reporting.

The Business World: In quarterly meetings, managers use 予測する to discuss 'Demand Forecasting' (Juyo Yosoku). It’s a key term for supply chain management and sales targets.

来期の売上を予測するための会議を行います。(We will hold a meeting to predict the sales for the next term.)

Another common setting is in academic lectures and research papers. Whether it's sociology, physics, or data science, the ability to yosoku a phenomenon is the goal of many studies. In these contexts, you'll often see the word in its noun form, 予測 (yosoku), paired with verbs like 立てる (tateru - to make/set up) or 外れる (hazureru - to be off/incorrect). For example, Yosoku ga hazureta means "The prediction was wrong," which is a common phrase when the economy takes an unexpected turn.

Artificial Intelligence: AI technology is often described as 'Yosoku gijutsu' (Prediction technology). You'll hear this in tech keynotes and product launches.

AIが消費者の行動を予測する時代になった。(We have entered an era where AI predicts consumer behavior.)

In the gaming world, particularly in strategy games or e-sports, commentators might use yosoku to describe a player's ability to read the opponent's next move based on their playstyle. "Aite no ugoki o yosoku shite iru" (They are predicting the opponent's movement). This demonstrates how the word, while formal, is applied to any situation where logic and observation lead to a conclusion about the future. From the boardroom to the gaming console, 予測する is the word for an informed look ahead.

One of the most frequent errors for Japanese learners is confusing 予測する (yosoku suru) with 予想する (yosou suru). While both mean "to predict," yosou is much broader and often includes guesses based on intuition, personal opinion, or gambling (like horse racing). If you say you yosoku who will win a beauty pageant based only on your preference, it sounds unnaturally clinical and strange. You should use yosou for personal conjectures and yosoku for data-driven forecasts. Using yosoku implies you have a spreadsheet or a scientific model behind your claim.

Yosoku vs. Yotei: Don't confuse 'predict' with 'plan'. 予定 (yotei) is a plan or schedule. You cannot 'yosoku' your own lunch unless you are an AI observing your own habits.

❌ 明日のランチはカレーだと予測する。
✅ 明日のランチはカレーの予定だ。

Another mistake is the misuse of particles. Learners often forget that 予測する is a transitive verb and requires the object marker を (o). However, when expressing the content of the prediction, と (to) is used. Forgetting the と when quoting a prediction is a common grammatical slip. For example, saying "Ame o yosoku suru" (Predict rain) is correct, but "Ame ga furu yosoku suru" is incorrect; it must be "Ame ga furu と予測する".

Transitive vs. Intransitive: Remember that the result 'is predicted' using the passive 予測される. Using the active 予測する when you aren't the one doing the predicting is a common error in news summaries.

❌ 地震が来ると予測しています。(Unless you are the scientist).
✅ 地震が来ると予測されています。(It is predicted...)

Finally, avoid overusing the word in casual settings. Using yosoku suru when talking about who will win a game of rock-paper-scissors sounds like you're trying to be a robot. In those cases, 当てる (ateru - to guess right) or 予想する are much more natural. Reserve yosoku suru for when you want to sound analytical, professional, or scientific. Misusing the register can make you sound stiff or unintentionally humorous.

Japanese has several words for looking into the future, and choosing the right one is key to sounding like a native. 予測する (yosoku) is for logical forecasting. Its closest sibling is 予想する (yosou). While often interchangeable in casual speech, yosou is the word for 'conjecture' or 'expectation.' If you are guessing who will win the World Cup based on your heart, use yosou. If you are a statistician using Elo ratings, use yosoku.

予言する (yogen suru): This means 'to prophesy'. It is used for Nostradamus, religious figures, or sci-fi characters who 'see' the future without data.

科学者は温暖化を予測し、預言者は世界の終わりを予言する。(Scientists predict global warming; prophets prophesy the end of the world.)

Another alternative is 予期する (yoki suru). This means 'to expect' or 'to anticipate' an event. It is often used in the negative form yoki senu (unexpected) to describe things that caught you off guard. Unlike yosoku, which is an active process of calculation, yoki is more about the mental state of being prepared for something. Then there is 見込む (mikomu), which is frequently used in business to mean 'to estimate' or 'to expect' (e.g., expecting a profit). It carries a sense of including that expectation in your current plans.

予知する (yochi suru): This means 'to foresee' or 'precognition'. It's often used for animals sensing earthquakes or people with 'sixth senses'.

この結果は、誰も予期していなかった。(No one had anticipated this result.)

In formal writing, you might also encounter 推測する (suisoku suru), which means 'to infer' or 'to surmise'. This is used when you are drawing a conclusion from indirect evidence. While yosoku looks strictly at the 'future' outcome, suisoku can be about anything, including someone's current feelings or a past event. Finally, 占う (uranau) means 'to tell a fortune'. If you are using tarot cards or stars, you are uranau-ing, not yosoku-ing. Understanding these boundaries will make your Japanese precise and sophisticated.

How Formal Is It?

趣味小知识

The kanji '測' (soku) is also used in words like 'suizoku' (water measurement) and 'kansoku' (observation). It contains the 'water' radical on the left, suggesting its original use was measuring water depth.

发音指南

UK jo.so.ku.su.ru

US jo.so.ku.su.ru

In Japanese, pitch accent is used instead of stress. In 'yosoku', the accent is usually flat (Heiban), meaning it starts low and stays high after the first syllable.

押韵词

Koku (Nation) Roku (Six) Boku (I - male) Zoku (Tribe) Moku (Tree/Eye) Tokoku (Distant land) Choku (Direct) Kyoku (Bureau)

常见错误

Pronouncing 'yo' like 'you'. It should be a short 'o'.
Pronouncing 'ru' with a heavy English 'R'. It's a light tap between 'L' and 'R'.
Stressing the 'so' syllable too much.
Elongating the 'u' in 'suru'. It's often almost silent in fast speech.
Confusing the pitch with 'yousoku' (which is not a common word).

难度评级

阅读 4/5

The kanji are common but require N2/B2 knowledge. Identifying them in compounds is key.

写作 4/5

The kanji '測' has many strokes and is easy to smudge or miswrite.

口语 3/5

Easy to pronounce, but requires knowing when to use it over 'yosou'.

听力 2/5

Very common in news, so it's easy to pick up with practice.

接下来学什么

前置知识

予定 (Yotei) 測る (Hakaru) 未来 (Mirai) 思う (Omou) データ (Deeta)

接下来学习

推測 (Suisoku) 予期 (Yoki) 仮説 (Kasetsu) 分析 (Bunseki) 確率 (Kakuritsu)

高级

予断 (Yodan) 忖度 (Sontaku) 蓋然性 (Gaizensei) 帰納 (Kinou) 演繹 (En'eki)

需要掌握的语法

～に基づき (Based on...)

データに基づき、将来を予測する。

～と予測される (It is predicted that...)

雨が降ると予測される。

～ことは困難だ (It is difficult to...)

正確に予測することは困難だ。

～に反して (Contrary to...)

予測に反して、結果は良かった。

～に従って (According to...)

予測に従って、準備を進める。

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按水平分级的例句

あしたのてんきをよそくします。

I predict tomorrow's weather.

Uses the basic 'Noun o yosoku-shimasu' pattern.

テストのてんをよそくする。

Predict the test score.

Dictionary form used in a simple thought or note.

だれがかつかよそくしましょう。

Let's predict who will win.

Uses the volitional form 'yosoku-shimashou'.

よそくはむずかしいです。

Predicting is difficult.

Uses 'yosoku' as a noun.

コンピューターがよそくする。

The computer predicts.

Simple subject-verb sentence.

あめがふるとよそくします。

I predict that it will rain.

Uses 'to' to quote the prediction.

よそくが当たりました！

The prediction was right!

Common phrase 'yosoku ga ataru'.

よそくを教えてください。

Please tell me your prediction.

Uses 'kudasai' with the noun form.

来週の天気を正確に予測するのは難しい。

It is difficult to accurately predict next week's weather.

Uses the adverb 'seikaku ni' and nominalizer 'no wa'.

試合の結果を予測してみましょう。

Let's try to predict the result of the match.

Uses the '~te miru' (try to) form.

彼はいつも悪いことを予測する。

He always predicts bad things.

Uses 'itsumo' (always) to describe a habit.

この機械は地震を予測できます。

This machine can predict earthquakes.

Uses the potential form 'yosoku dekimasu'.

将来の人口を予測するのは大切だ。

It is important to predict the future population.

Uses 'taisetsu da' (is important).

データを使って、売り上げを予測します。

We predict sales using data.

Uses '~te' to show the means (using data).

あなたの予測は間違っています。

Your prediction is wrong.

Uses the noun 'yosoku' with 'machigatte iru'.

専門家が経済の動きを予測している。

Experts are predicting the movement of the economy.

Uses the continuous form '~te iru'.

過去のデータに基づき、来月の需要を予測する。

Predict next month's demand based on past data.

Uses the formal '~ni motozuki' (based on).

景気が回復すると予測されています。

It is predicted that the economy will recover.

Uses the passive form 'yosoku sarete iru' for objectivity.

不測の事態を予測して、準備しておく必要がある。

It is necessary to predict unforeseen circumstances and prepare in advance.

Uses 'fusoku' (unforeseen) which shares a kanji with 'yosoku'.

AIが個人の好みを予測する時代になった。

We have entered an era where AI predicts individual preferences.

Uses the relative clause 'AI ga... yosoku suru' to modify 'jidai'.

その予測は現実とは大きく異なっていた。

That prediction was greatly different from reality.

Uses '~to kotonaru' (to differ from).

交通渋滞を予測して、早めに家を出た。

Predicting traffic congestion, I left home early.

Uses the '~te' form to show reason/sequence.

科学的な根拠を持って予測することが重要だ。

It is important to predict with scientific grounds.

Uses '~o motte' (with/having).

台風の進路を正確に予測することは難しい。

It is difficult to accurately predict the path of a typhoon.

Uses the nominalizer 'koto wa' for the subject.

この市場調査の結果から、消費者の動向を予測する。

From the results of this market research, we will predict consumer trends.

Uses '~kara' to indicate the source of information.

予断を許さない状況だが、最悪の事態を予測しておくべきだ。

The situation is unpredictable, but we should predict the worst-case scenario.

Uses 'yodan o yurusanai' (unpredictable/critical).

株価の変動を予測するアルゴリズムを開発した。

Developed an algorithm to predict stock price fluctuations.

Uses a complex noun phrase as the object.

気候変動が農業に与える影響を予測する研究が進んでいる。

Research is progressing to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture.

Uses a relative clause within another relative clause.

彼がこれほど早く出世するとは、誰も予測していなかった。

No one predicted that he would be promoted this quickly.

Uses '~to wa' to show surprise/emphasis.

需要予測を誤ると、在庫を抱えるリスクが高まる。

If you make a mistake in demand forecasting, the risk of holding inventory increases.

Uses the compound noun 'juyo-yosoku'.

政府は来年度のGDP成長率を1.5%と予測している。

The government predicts next year's GDP growth rate to be 1.5%.

Uses '...to yosoku shite iru' for official statements.

予測不可能な事態に備えて、複数のシナリオを用意する。

Prepare multiple scenarios for unpredictable events.

Uses the adjective 'yosoku-fukannou-na'.

人口動態の推移から、社会保障制度の持続可能性を予測する。

Predict the sustainability of the social security system from demographic transitions.

Uses academic vocabulary like 'jinkou doutai' and 'jisoku kanousei'.

現代の複雑な国際情勢を的確に予測することは、至難の業だ。

Accurately predicting today's complex international situation is an extremely difficult task.

Uses the idiomatic expression 'shinan no waza' (extremely difficult).

その政策がもたらす副作用を予測しきれなかったことが、失敗の原因だ。

The failure was caused by the inability to fully predict the side effects of that policy.

Uses the auxiliary verb '~kiru' (to do completely) in the negative.

深層学習を用いた予測モデルが、医療診断の精度を飛躍的に高めている。

Prediction models using deep learning are dramatically improving the accuracy of medical diagnoses.

Uses technical terms like 'shinsou gakushuu' (deep learning).

将来の不確実性を予測の範疇に組み込むことが、経営戦略の鍵となる。

Incorporating future uncertainties into the scope of prediction is the key to management strategy.

Uses the formal term 'hanchuu' (category/scope).

地震の発生時期を特定して予測することは、現在の科学では不可能に近い。

Identifying and predicting the timing of an earthquake is nearly impossible with current science.

Uses '~ni fukannou ni chikai' (close to impossible).

彼は、市場のわずかな変化から大恐慌の到来を予測していた。

He had predicted the arrival of the Great Depression from slight changes in the market.

Uses 'tourai' (arrival/advent) in a formal historical context.

予測値と実測値の乖離を分析することで、モデルを改善する。

Improve the model by analyzing the divergence between predicted and measured values.

Uses 'kairi' (divergence/gap), a high-level academic term.

量子力学の不確定性原理は、微視的世界における完全な予測を否定する。

The uncertainty principle of quantum mechanics denies complete predictability in the microscopic world.

Uses highly specialized scientific terminology.

歴史の必然性を予測しようとする試みは、しばしば決定論の罠に陥る。

Attempts to predict historical inevitability often fall into the trap of determinism.

Uses philosophical terms like 'hitsuzensei' (inevitability) and 'ketteiron' (determinism).

法の予見可能性を担保することは、近代法治国家における大原則である。

Ensuring the predictability of the law is a major principle in a modern constitutional state.

Uses 'yoken kanousei' (predictability/foreseeability) in a legal context.

カオス理論によれば、初期値の極微な差異が予測を根本から覆しうる。

According to chaos theory, infinitesimal differences in initial values can fundamentally overturn predictions.

Uses '~uru' (can/is possible) and 'gokubi' (infinitesimal).

地政学的リスクを予測の変数に織り込むことは、グローバル企業の急務だ。

Incorporating geopolitical risks into prediction variables is an urgent task for global companies.

Uses the business idiom 'orikomu' (to incorporate/weave in).

人工知能が人間の創造性を凌駕し、その行動を完全に予測する特異点が近づいている。

The singularity, where AI surpasses human creativity and completely predicts human behavior, is approaching.

Uses 'tokuiten' (singularity) and 'ryouga suru' (to surpass).

予測の精度を極限まで高める努力は、皮肉にも新たな不確実性を生み出すことがある。

The effort to maximize the accuracy of predictions can, ironically, create new uncertainties.

Uses 'kyokugen' (limit/extreme) and 'hironi-ni-mo' (ironically).

彼は、パンデミックの発生を十数年も前から、緻密なシミュレーションによって予測していた。

He had predicted the occurrence of the pandemic more than a decade ago through meticulous simulation.

Uses 'chimitsu' (meticulous/detailed) and 'juusuunen' (over ten years).

常见搭配

正確に予測する

データを予測する

結果を予測する

需要を予測する

経済を予測する

予測が当たる

予測が外れる

予測を立てる

予測不可能

予測モデル

常用短语

予測の範囲内

— Within the expected range. Used when something happens that was not surprising.

この結果は予測の範囲内です。

予測を裏切る

— To defy or go against predictions. Used for surprising outcomes.

彼の成功は、周囲の予測を裏切るものだった。

予測がつかない

— To have no idea or be unable to predict. Used for chaotic situations.

今後の展開は全く予測がつかない。

不測の事態

— An unforeseen or unexpected situation. Commonly used in safety manuals.

不測の事態に備えてください。

需要予測

— Demand forecasting. A vital term in business and logistics.

需要予測に基づいて生産量を決める。

気象予測

— Weather forecasting. The scientific term for analyzing weather patterns.

最新の気象予測システムを導入する。

予測を上回る

— To exceed predictions. Often used for positive surprises in profit or growth.

売上が予測を大幅に上回った。

予測を下回る

— To fall below predictions. Often used for disappointing results.

収益が予測を下回ってしまった。

長期予測

— Long-term forecast. Used for climate or population trends.

30年後の人口に関する長期予測。

予測精度

— Prediction accuracy. Used to evaluate how good a forecast is.

予測精度を高めることが課題だ。

容易混淆的词

予測する vs 予想 (Yosou)

Yosou is more subjective/intuitive; Yosoku is more objective/data-based.

予測する vs 予定 (Yotei)

Yotei is a plan/intent; Yosoku is an estimation of what will happen regardless of intent.

予測する vs 予言 (Yogen)

Yogen is a prophecy (often mystical); Yosoku is a scientific forecast.

习语与表达

"予測の域を出ない"

— To not go beyond the level of speculation. Used when a claim lacks proof.

その話は、まだ予測の域を出ない。

Formal

"予測だにしない"

— To not even imagine or predict in the slightest. Very formal emphasis.

そんな結末は予測だにしなかった。

Literary

"予測を立てる"

— To formulate a prediction. Common in planning.

まず、最悪のケースの予測を立てよう。

Neutral

"予測がつく"

— To be able to predict or have an idea of the outcome.

なんとなく結果の予測がつく。

Neutral

"予測を許さない"

— To not allow for prediction; a situation that is extremely volatile.

病状は依然として予測を許さない。

Formal

"予測を裏切る"

— To go against what was expected.

市場の動きが専門家の予測を裏切った。

Neutral

"予測を外す"

— To miss the mark in a prediction.

彼は今回も予測を外してしまった。

Neutral

"予測を的中させる"

— To hit the prediction perfectly (make it come true).

彼女は見事に予測を的中させた。

Formal

"予測に反して"

— Contrary to predictions.

予測に反して、株価は上昇した。

Formal

"予測の範疇"

— Within the category/scope of prediction.

それは十分に予測の範疇だ。

Formal

容易混淆

予測する vs 推測 (Suisoku)

Both involve thinking about something not yet confirmed.

Suisoku is 'inference' from evidence and can be about the past or present. Yosoku is strictly about the future.

彼の表情から、怒っていると推測した。(Inferred from his face that he is angry.)

予測する vs 予期 (Yoki)

Both involve looking ahead.

Yoki is 'anticipation' or 'expectation' (a mental state). Yosoku is the 'act' of calculating the future.

地震を予期して避難する。(Anticipating an earthquake and evacuating.)

予測する vs 見込み (Mikomi)

Both mean 'expectation'.

Mikomi often implies a business 'estimate' or 'hope' for a certain outcome. Yosoku is more clinical.

来場者は一万人を超える見込みだ。(The number of visitors is expected to exceed 10,000.)

予測する vs 予報 (Yohou)

Both are used for weather.

Yohou is the 'announcement/report' of a prediction. Yosoku is the 'thinking/calculation' process.

天気予報を見る。(Watch the weather report.)

予測する vs 憶測 (Okusoku)

Both involve guessing.

Okusoku is 'speculation' often without much evidence, and usually has a negative nuance.

憶測で話すのはやめなさい。(Stop speaking based on speculation.)

句型

[Noun] を予測する

天気を予測する。

[Sentence] と予測する

景気が良くなると予測する。

予測が [当たる/外れる]

予測が当たりました。

[Noun] と予測される

回復すると予測される。

予測不可能な [Noun]

予測不可能な事態。

予測の範疇 [内/外]

それは予測の範疇内だ。

～を予測しうる

誰もが予測しうる結果。

予測を裏切る

市場の予測を裏切る動き。

词族

名词

予測 (Yosoku - Prediction)

予測値 (Yosokuchi - Predicted value)

予測器 (Yosokuki - Predictor/Instrument)

动词

予測する (Yosoku suru - To predict)

予測される (Yosoku sareru - To be predicted)

形容词

予測可能な (Yosoku kanou na - Predictable)

予測不可能な (Yosoku fukannou na - Unpredictable)

如何使用

frequency

Very high in news, medium-high in business, medium in daily conversation.

常见错误

Using 'yosoku' for personal plans. → 予定 (yotei)
You cannot 'predict' your own intention to go to the store; that is a plan.
Saying 'yosoku ga machigatta'. → 予測が外れた (yosoku ga hazureta)
While 'machigatta' is understood, 'hazureta' (missed) is the idiomatic way to say a prediction was wrong.
Confusing 'yosoku' with 'yogen'. → 予測 (for data) / 予言 (for magic/religion)
Don't use 'yosoku' for a psychic's prediction; it sounds too scientific.
Omitting 'to' in '...to yosoku suru'. → ～と予測する
When the prediction is a full sentence, the quotation particle 'to' is mandatory.
Using 'yosoku' for guessing someone's feelings. → 推測する (suisoku suru)
Predicting feelings is usually 'inference' (suisoku) or 'guessing' (yosou), not 'forecasting' (yosoku).

小贴士

Use the Passive for News

When reporting what experts say, use 'yosoku sarete iru'. It makes you sound like a professional journalist.

Data is Key

Only use 'yosoku' if you can point to a reason or some data. Otherwise, 'yosou' is more natural.

Learn the Compounds

Words like 'yosoku-funou' (unpredictable) are used very frequently in Japanese media.

Avoid for Small Talk

Don't 'yosoku' who will win a coin toss; it sounds too serious. Use 'ateru' (guess right) instead.

Formal Contexts

In essays, 'yosoku' is preferred over 'yosou' to show logical thinking.

Safety First

In Japan, 'yosoku' is often linked to 'risk management'. Use it when discussing safety plans.

Weather Reports

Listen for 'yosoku' during typhoon season; it's the most common time to hear it on TV.

Measure the Future

Remember the kanji '測' (measure). You are measuring the future.

Yosoku vs. Yogen

Scientists 'yosoku'; fortune tellers 'yogen' (or 'uranau').

Te-iru Form

Predictions are often ongoing states, so 'yosoku shite iru' is more common than just 'yosoku suru'.

记住它

记忆技巧

Think of 'Yo!' as 'Yo, wait!' (looking ahead) and 'Soku' as 'Soccer'. You are trying to measure where the soccer ball will go before it's kicked.

视觉联想

Imagine a scientist with a giant ruler (測) trying to measure a cloud (予) that hasn't arrived yet.

Word Web

未来 (Future) データ (Data) 天気 (Weather) 経済 (Economy) 計算 (Calculation) 論理 (Logic) 科学 (Science) 当たる (To hit/be right)

挑战

Try to use 'yosoku suru' three times today: once for the weather, once for your work/study result, and once for a news story.

词源

The word comes from Middle Chinese roots. 'Yo' (予) means 'in advance' or 'previously'. 'Soku' (測) means 'to measure' or 'to gauge'. Together, they form the concept of 'measuring in advance'.

原始含义： To measure or estimate something before it actually happens or is physically measured.

Sino-Japanese (Kango).

文化背景

Be careful when 'yosoku-ing' about people's personal lives (like marriage or death), as it can sound cold or clinical. Use 'yosou' or softer terms for personal matters.

In English, we often use 'predict' for everything. In Japanese, using 'yosoku' instead of 'yosou' makes you sound much more professional and data-oriented.

天気予報 (Tenki Yohou) - The daily weather forecast everyone watches. Asimov's Psychohistory - Often translated using 'yosoku' in Japanese sci-fi. The 'Black Swan' theory - Often discussed in Japanese as 'yosoku-funou na dekigoto'.

在生活中练习

真实语境

Weather Forecast

進路を予測する
降水量を予測する
予測が難しい
最新の予測

Business Meeting

売上を予測する
需要予測を立てる
市場を予測する
予測を上回る

Science/Research

結果を予測する
予測モデルの構築
数値予測
予測の妥当性

Sports Analysis

勝敗を予測する
展開を予測する
相手の動きを予測する
予測が的中する

Daily Planning

混雑を予測する
時間を予測する
リスクを予測する
予測を立てて行動する

对话开场白

"来週の天気はどうなると予測していますか？ (How do you predict the weather will be next week?)"

"これからのAI技術の進歩をどう予測しますか？ (How do you predict the progress of AI technology from now on?)"

"次の試合の結果を正確に予測できる人はいますか？ (Is there anyone who can accurately predict the result of the next match?)"

"日本の将来の人口減少について、どう予測されていますか？ (How is the future population decline in Japan predicted?)"

"仕事で需要予測をすることはありますか？ (Do you ever do demand forecasting at work?)"

日记主题

10年後の自分の生活を予測して、詳しく書いてみましょう。 (Predict your life 10 years from now and write about it in detail.)

最近、予測が外れて驚いた出来事について書いてください。 (Write about a recent event where a prediction was wrong and you were surprised.)

もし未来を100%予測できる能力があったら、何をしますか？ (If you had the ability to predict the future 100%, what would you do?)

テクノロジーが教育をどう変えるか、あなたの予測を述べてください。 (State your prediction on how technology will change education.)

自分の好きなスポーツチームの来シーズンの結果を予測してみましょう。 (Try to predict the results of your favorite sports team for the next season.)

常见问题

10 个问题

Use 'yosoku' when you have data, numbers, or a scientific basis. Use 'yosou' for general guesses, sports betting, or feelings about the future. For example, use 'yosoku' for economic growth but 'yosou' for who will win a race.

No. For personal plans, use 'yotei'. You 'yotei' to go to the movies, but you 'yosoku' that the movie theater will be crowded.

No, 'yosoku' is exclusively for future events. For the past, use 'suisoku' (inference) or 'suitei' (estimation).

It means 'unpredictable'. It's a common compound used for chaotic weather or volatile markets.

You can say 'Yosoku ga atarimashita' (予測が当たりました) or more formally 'Yosoku ga tekichuu shimashita' (予測が的中しました).

It is a neutral, formal word (Kango). It is appropriate for business and academic settings. In very casual settings, it might sound a bit stiff.

'Yosoku' is the act of predicting. 'Yohou' is the official report or broadcast of that prediction (like a weather report).

Yes, 'yosoku' is the standard term used in AI and Machine Learning for 'prediction models' (yosoku moderu).

It means 'demand forecasting'. It's a very important term in business for managing inventory.

You must nominalize the verb or use 'to'. Example: 'Ame ga furu (verb) to yosoku suru' or 'Uriage ga agaru (verb) koto o yosoku suru'.

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